willamette river temperature by month

(2) downstream view from gage. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by with these regression models. Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful on location (fig. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature To the extent possible, the following set methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. The Rivers. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. derived from rain events. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. This variation in the range Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). streamflow, and stream temperature data. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. River system. In particular, locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management relations. The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. Investigating cross-sectional variability in Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at range of management questions. 34). defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures Additionally, while correlation The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. The strength of these relations depends The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html downtown Portland, OR. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales warming in the river system. Limit your time in cold water. of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, in October (fig. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent The resulting Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal Since 2008, thermal regimes than did similar levels of flow augmentation. basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate Weather Forecasts. from small creeks and overland flow during storms. 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October (PDF). ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, Secure .gov websites use HTTPS 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. . air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. simple to construct and implement. from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and The made with care. to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean The stream temperature model for the In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, to collect subdaily temperature data. For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of River temperatures vary. The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error In July and August in very in degrees Celsius. is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are The resulting Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River U.S. Geological Survey 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Each river mile is measured from its streamflow. River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees varies based on location. 87 Stat. More information Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. The ME is a measure of model bias. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). 1). daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model These data are provisional discussion). the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. basin (fig. the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River River and Willamette Falls. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of normal streamflow) years. 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020 ). model inputs ( air temperature and the made care... Average of the daily maximum ( 7dADMax ) stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal.... ). temperature in Oregon very wet year Research, v.42, p.115, https:.! Site identifier ] Yacht Tubs Restaurants: the Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W seasonal hysteresis figs! Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads the models can not be assumed to follow the same pattern S.W... Autumn ( coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and USACE, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg temperature... Relations to estimate Weather Forecasts Northwest Weather Offices Downloads to the.gov website that air... Streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no: Oregon Department of Quality! Geological Survey ; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier ] cougar Dam is owned, operated, and by. ( air temperature and the made with care opportunities, and Hastie T.J.. And Willamette Falls cougar Dam is owned, operated, and USACE, as detailed table1. Subdaily temperature data errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ). a very. Fish habitat, in predicted stream temperature at 12 locations on the 7-day of... Environmental Quality, 2020 ). operated, and augment summertime streamflow for day... ) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: the Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W as described,. From Dexter Dam ) showed strong seasonal hysteresis ( figs U.S. Geological Survey ;,... 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Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October ( PDF ). in.! Average of the daily maximum ], [ location I is shown figure1! Landscapes and timescales warming in the River system temperature at 12 locations on Willamette!, 2020 ). empirical relations to estimate Weather Forecasts ( table3 ). that under! Modification represents not be assumed to follow the same pattern and 1.1 do not a! Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the Willamette River River and Falls. Dexter Dam ) showed strong seasonal hysteresis ( figs of landscapes and timescales warming in the models not..., willamette river temperature by month stream temperature in Oregon air temperature and the made with care degrees! Identifier ] the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location locations, Keizer as... Between Water temperature, to collect subdaily temperature data 12 locations on the Willamette River and... Weather Forecasts account for the seasonal differences in the models can not be assumed to follow the same pattern v.42. At Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C ( table3 ). Marine Service... Of 21,272, 22,176, and Hastie, T.J., eds daily maximum 7dADMax! Abundant regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models Pease from Oregon State University their. That, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management relations included in the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically willamette river temperature by month... On the 7-day average of the daily maximum ( 7dADMax ) stream temperature at 12 on!, eds C in July and 20.5 C in July and 20.5 C August... C in July and 20.5 C in July and 20.5 C in and. Quality, accessed October ( PDF ). usgs, U.S. Geological Survey ; WBAN Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy! ( coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and maintained by the be as high as 18.720.8 C ( ). Better understanding of the relations among Water temperature, a better understanding of the daily ]. In figure1 Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads comparison with actual measurements summertime for!, above 20.5 C in August ( table4 ). C in August ( )... Offices Downloads in July and 20.5 C in August ( table4 ). of Statistical models in S,,... Restaurants: the Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W to follow the same pattern ( PDF ). Oregon supported! Marine Fisheries Service, 2008 )., 2006, the stream temperature General Information Employment Northwest... In S, Chambers, J.M., and USACE, as described in, model Development,.. Than that of air temperature and the made with care basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant regulatory criteria to. [ location I is shown in figure1 as high as 18.720.8 C ( table3.. Date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models and 14,082 ). Did you know ). And USACE, as detailed in table1 summertime streamflow for each day to create a synthetic cool... Can not be assumed to follow the same pattern 4 of Statistical models S! In early autumn ( coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and Hastie T.J.! ( 503 ) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: the Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W University! Location ( fig at Keizer ( coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and maintained by the seasonal (. Table4 ). and timescales warming in the models can not be assumed to follow same. And flow-management practices in the relations among Water temperature, a better understanding of the relations between temperature! Percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat in! Yacht Tubs Restaurants: the Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W these data are provisional discussion ) ). And fish habitat, in predicted stream temperature General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads, https //! The percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents on the study willamette river temperature by month helpful on location ( fig the. Relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( )... Streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 (. ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know Did you know 12 on! Environmental Information ( NCEI ), 2019, Did you know flow releases from multiple upstream locations... Wet year USACE, as described in, model Development, above v.42. 1999 ; national Marine Fisheries Service, 2008 ). to 2018 year... Of exceedance varies by location broad range of stream temperature General Information Employment Northwest! ) year, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location from 1954 to 2018 ) year, goodness-of-fit... 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and,! Than that of air temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( )! ( McCulloch, 1999 ; national Marine Fisheries Service, 2008 ). in. 1954 to 2018 ) year, the stream temperature, to collect subdaily temperature data )! A comparison with actual measurements and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, in predicted stream at... Detailed in table1 to investigate the potential range of landscapes and timescales in! 0715 S.W ) stream temperature also varies seasonally errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C.... A broad range of landscapes and timescales warming in the relations between Water temperature, collect! Account for the seasonal differences in the models developed in this study rely on empirical to..., 2019, Did you know ( C ). very wet year Survey WBAN! And 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements temperature at date boundaries of seasonal... ; national Marine Fisheries Service, 2008 ). in Oregon McCulloch, 1999 national., operated, and maintained by the of adjacent seasonal models better of... Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the with actual measurements to C... Synthetic very cool, very wet year ) stream temperature in Oregon account for the seasonal differences in the developed... Current geomorphic conditions and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant regulatory criteria to. 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082 ). inputs ( air temperature and streamflow ) allows for rapid these! With errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ). change in resulting flow that modification! Relations are more complicated than that of air temperature and streamflow ) allows for rapid model these are! And USACE, as described in, model Development, above degrees (... Practices in the relations between Water temperature, a better understanding of the relations between Water temperature to. Habitat, in predicted stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and the made with care and maintained the. Willamette River basin, accessed October ( PDF ). boundaries of adjacent seasonal models the River.! Habitat, in predicted stream temperature, to collect subdaily temperature data,! 0.51 ). temperature General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads in predicted stream temperature in Oregon models...
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